The Model Ship Blog

Future Book Betting Pitfalls And How To Avoid Them

Posted by Ross Everett

Betting on sports \’futures\’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here\’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Don\’t bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You\’ll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks\’ aren\’t as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures \”market\” is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn\’t respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.

Don\’t fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you\’re getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their \’true odds\’ of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are \’under the radar\’ at higher prices offer more compensation for these \’risks\’.

To put this in more theoretical terms, the \”true odds\” of Duke winning the NCAA Championship are almost certainly higher than the price we\’re getting. Obviously, determining the \”true odds\”, or actual probability of a future event is an inexact science but think of it this way: if the NCAA tournament was played 100 times would Duke wind up winning 50 of those? Given the number of other good teams and the propensity for upsets along the way, its doubtful. For the sake of argument, lets say that Duke has a 33% chance to win the tournament. That means that I wouldn\’t consider a bet on Duke to be a good value unless I was getting a price that a) accurately reflected the true probability of their winning and b) gave me some compensation for assuming the \”risk of the unknown\” inherent in taking the position so far in advance. At +500 I might be interested, but at +200 the value just isn\’t there.

In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria\’s Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.

Don\’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a \’big killing\’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn\’t make it a good value. If you\’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don\’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.

On a more theoretical level, a big price alone is no way to justify a wager. The concept of value works the same at the bottom of the barrel as it does at the top: make sure the price you\’re getting on an underdog accurately reflects their \”true odds\” of winning.

Don\’t waste your money on ridiculous prop bets: Occasionally sports books offer ridiculous bets to get press or to be funny. For example, a book once offered odds on Demi Moore, Ashton Kutcher and Bruce Willis all hopping into bed together and releasing a video tape of the proceedings. You\’d no doubt get a huge payback were this to happen, but the \’true odds\’ of such an event transpiring far exceeded even a big potential payback.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Tags: Entertainment, Finance, gambling, hobbies, marketing, recreation, reference, sports, Sports & Recreation, sports betting, Travel